Where to Aim: A Course Management Decision Tool

We've added a new LAB tool: Strategy Simulator. Enter the situation and see the expected score (average) and recommended strategy for your next shot.

What the Simulator Does

Inputs

1. Distance left (5–50 yards)
   Use the slider; probabilities update in real time.

2. Lie
   Fairway or rough.

3. Pin side
   Long-side (more green) or short-side (less green).

Outputs

• Expected up-and-down %
• Expected strokes to finish
• Strategy advice

How It Decides

The simulator suggests strategy using simple rules:

Attack (success rate ≥ 60%)

Favorable situation. Aim to get close, but be aware of leave (e.g. uphill putt).

Caution (40–60%)

Don’t force the hero shot. Priority is getting on the green in a safe spot. Two-putt bogey is acceptable and avoids double.

Danger (success rate < 40%)

Even pros struggle from here. Don’t aim at the pin. Aim at center or the safest zone and focus on two putts. "On the green is good" protects your score.

Short-side warning

From the short side, avoid high-skill shots (e.g. lob). Prefer chip-and-roll or a safer route.

How the Probabilities Are Calculated

The simulator uses:

• Base: e.g. 10 yards, fairway, long-side ≈ 70%
• Distance: About 1.5% lower per 10 yards
• Rough: About 20% lower
• Short-side: About 25% lower (another ~10% in rough)

Link to the LAB Tool

Strategy Simulator: Course Management

Conclusion: If the probability is below 40%, don’t aim at the pin. Aim at the center of the green.

Use data to improve your decisions on the course. You can export results as text or images.