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Where to Aim

Strategy & Shot

Course-management decision support: input the situation and get expected value and recommended strategy.

If your up-and-down odds drop below 40%, stop aiming at the pin. Aim for the center of the green.

Course Management Simulator

Enter the situation and see expected value (average score) and recommended strategy for your next shot.

Course Management Simulator

Enter the situation and see expected value (average score) and recommended strategy for your next shot.

5y20y50y
Expected Up & Down %
55%
Expected strokes to finish: 2.50 strokes

💡 Strategy advice

Play smart. Don’t force the hero shot. Prioritize getting the ball on the green in a safe spot. Accepting a two-putt bogey here often avoids double.

Strategy Simulator Result

Distance: 20y Lie: Fairway Pin: Long side (fat) Expected Up & Down %: 55% Expected strokes to finish: 2.50 strokes Strategy advice: Play smart. Don’t force the hero shot. Prioritize getting the ball on the green in a safe spot. Accepting a two-putt bogey here often avoids double.

References

  • •Broadie, M. (2014). "Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy." Gotham Books.
  • •Pelz, D. (2000). "Dave Pelz's Short Game Bible." Doubleday.
  • •PGA Tour. "Strokes Gained Analysis: Course Management Strategies." PGA Tour ShotLink Data.
  • •Mark Broadie. "Assessing Golfer Performance on the PGA TOUR." Interfaces, Vol. 42, No. 2, 2012.