ANSWER

Fade vs. Draw

Shot Shape

Visualize dispersion patterns for draw and fade; understand how miss tendencies differ by shot shape.

A fade isn’t “short”—it’s predictable. You can plan for it.

Physics and probability to lower your score

Hypothesis: Draw vs. fade—which is better?

Draw vs. fade: modern dispersion patterns

Old wisdom said “draw goes farther, fade doesn’t.” With modern low-spin, high-speed balls the gap has narrowed. Here we look at each shot shape’s miss pattern (dispersion) and carry consistency.

Dispersion comparison

150-yard simulation

DrawDraw: Good carry, but with run total distance spreads more; left miss (hook) tends to be wider.
FadeFade: More spin and steeper landing angle, so total distance (where it stops) is more predictable.

Carry vs. run (stopping power)

Draw runs more, so total distance is longer but control on the green (predicting total) is harder. Even with modern balls, fade has a steeper landing angle and stays closer to the landing spot.

Conclusion: A fade isn’t “short”—it’s predictable. Misses tend to come up short, so except when you need carry over trouble, it’s easier to take dead aim at the pin.

References

  • TrackMan Golf. "Ball Flight Laws and Dispersion Patterns." TrackMan Golf Education.
  • Pelz, D. (2000). "Dave Pelz's Short Game Bible." Doubleday.
  • Broadie, M. (2014). "Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy." Gotham Books.
  • PGA Tour. "ShotLink Data Analysis: Draw vs Fade Performance." PGA Tour Statistics.