The Fear of Short-Siding: The Real Risk in Short Game

We've added a new LAB tool: Short Game Stats. It shows the real risk of going short-side (missing on the narrow side of the green) in the short game.

"Where Can I Get Up and Down From?"

The answer depends not only on distance but on which side of the green you have. Data show that short-side misses are costly for amateurs and pros alike.

The Statistical Lines

Within 10 yards

The highest-expectation zone. From here, up-and-down is likely—but from the short side, even pros see success drop from the 80s to the 60s.

The 20–30 yard wall

This is the divide. Beyond 30 yards, PGA Tour pros scramble (get up and down) less than 50% of the time. So from 30+ yards, not getting up and down is normal.

Short-side penalty

From rough at 15 yards, short-side costs about 0.2–0.4 strokes per shot versus long-side. That’s bogey or worse more than one in four times.

Recovery Rate by Distance and Side

The tool compares success rate by zone:

• 0–10 yards: Long-side 85% vs. short-side 65%
• 10–20 yards: Long-side 65% vs. short-side 40%
• 20–30 yards: Long-side 52% vs. short-side 28%
• 30–40 yards: Long-side 40% vs. short-side 15%
• 40+ yards: Long-side 25% vs. short-side 8%

The Rule

Don’t short-side.

Missing to the "wide side" (long-side) isn’t passive—it’s a probability-based strategy. Especially for players who hit draw (and get run), when the pin is left, aiming at center is often the right call.

Link to the LAB Tool

Short Game Stats: The Real Risk of Short-Siding

Conclusion: Don’t short-side. Missing to the wide side is the strongest attack, in terms of probability.

Use data-driven decisions to improve your score.